US: ADP data supports a solid NFP on Friday – BBVA

According to the Research Department at BBVA, today’s ADP report showed that the labor market continues to add jobs at a steady rate and they expect a solid NFP on Friday, including gains in average earnings.

Key Quotes:


“The ADP employment report noted a 200K gain in private nonfarm employment in March, compared to February’s 205K increase. The results were in line with consensus and reinforce the positive news in regards to unemployment and labor force participation. Not surprisingly, the only industry in which payrolls declined in March was energy, as has been the case for over a year, according to Moody’s Analytics, which collaborates with ADP in the production of this report.”

“One thing that stood out in the BLS’s February nonfarm payroll report was that average hourly earnings decreased despite improvements in job growth, likely because a lot of the newly generated jobs were in lower-paying service-industry positions. We expect to see this reversed in March with a pickup in wage growth.”

“While the ADP report doesn’t always match the BLS’s nonfarm payroll report, today’s data support our expectation that Friday’s employment figures will show that the economy added jobs at a steady pace slightly above the 200K threshold.”

Trade the nonfarm payrolls report - Live Coverage & Analysis


According to the Research Department at BBVA, today’s ADP report showed that the labor market continues to add jobs at a steady rate and they expect a solid NFP on Friday, including gains in average earnings.


(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

EUR/USD retreats but holds above 1.1300

EUR/USD pulled back during the American session after reaching a 7-week high at 1.1364. The decline from the highs found support at 1.1315, slightly above the 20-hour moving average.

The pair currently trades at 1.1320/25, up 35 pips, rising for the third day in a row and headed toward the highest daily close since October.

The US dollar trimmed losses across the board during the last hours and pushed EUR/USD to the downside as stocks in the US also moved off session highs.

EUR/USD technical levels

To the upside resistance level might be located at 1.1340/45 (intraday level / March16 high), 1.1375 (Feb 10 high) and 1.1400 (psychological). On the opposite direction, support could be seen at 1.1312/15 (20-hour MA / American session low), 1.1280 (daily low) and 1.1220 (March 28 high).

Date ahead


After today’s preliminary March CPI reading in Germany, tomorrow will be the turn of Eurozone CPI data; the annual rate is expected to have risen from -0.2% to -0.1% and the core rate from 0.8% to 1.0%. Also, the minutes from the latest European Central Bank meeting will be released.

In the US, jobless claims data and the Chicago PMI will be the reports to watch. Traders attentions is on Friday’s NFP report.

Trade the nonfarm payrolls report - Live Coverage & Analysis


EUR/USD pulled back during the American session after reaching a 7-week high at 1.1364. The decline from the highs found support at 1.1315, slightly above the 20-hour moving average.


(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

USD/MXN correction continues, drops to fresh 2016 lows

The Mexican peso is rising against the US dollar on Wednesday for the fourth day in a row and today it reached a fresh 2016 high. A weak greenback and risk appetite pushed USD/MXN sharply to the downside.

The pair that in February reached a record high at 19.44 (intraday), recently hit 17.16, the lowest level since December. Currently it trades at 17.21/23 and continues to point to the downside. Now it is flat for the year, after erasing a 12% gain.

Banxico and the Fed

Yesterday’s comments from Janet Yellen pushed market expectation of the next rate hike further to the future. It the Fed remains on hold, the central bank of Mexico is likely to do the same.

“We believe that the health of the US domestic economy is overstated and believe that no further rate hike will happen this year. The dovish stance is clearly retreating and unfortunately for Mexico, we should therefore see further weakening in the USDMXN”, said Yann Quelenn, Market Analyst at Swissquote.

The Mexican peso is rising against the US dollar on Wednesday for the fourth day in a row and today it reached a fresh 2016 high. A weak greenback and risk appetite pushed USD/MXN sharply to the downside.


(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

Evans backs Yellen’s dovish tone

Evans has been speaking and has not delivered anything more than what has been said before by any Fed member and has underpinned the kind of rhetoric we have been starting to here now after Yellen's speech in New York.Evans explained that jobs are buoy... [...]

USD/CHF rebounds after hitting 5-month lows under 0.9600

USD/CHF reached levels under 0.9600 for the first time since October. The pair bottomed at 0.9592 after Wall Street opening bell. During the last hours, greenback gained momentum in the market and trimmed losses, pushing the pair back above 0.9600.

USD/CHF falling for the third day but off lows

Currently it trades at 0.9635/40, 0.35% below yesterday’s closing price, headed toward the third daily decline in a row. Today the pair is breaking below previous monthly lows bu the rebound from the lows could suggest that a short-term bottom is in place, favoring scenario of consolidation for the next sessions.

The ADP report showed better-than-expected numbers but the US dollar failed to raise. Yesterday’s comments from Yellen continued to weight on greenback. The FED Chair lowered again rate hike expectation, boosting stocks and bonds.

Tomorrow it will be the turn in the US of the jobless claims report while the key labor report will be on Friday with the NFP. According to estimates, market consensus points toward a 205K increase in payrolls.

Trade the nonfarm payrolls report - Live Coverage & Analysis


USD/CHF reached levels under 0.9600 for the first time since October. The pair bottomed at 0.9592 after Wall Street opening bell. During the last hours, greenback gained momentum in the market and trimmed losses, pushing the pair back above 0.9600.


(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

Wall Street. Major U.S. stock-indexes rose

Major U.S. stock-indexes rose on Wednesday, a day after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's comments eased some concerns about the path of interest rate hikes, but gains were limited by a dip in crude oil prices. Oil prices retreated from their day's... [...]

AUD/USD bulls tiring at option barrier level

AUD/USD bulls are losing their commitments at the 0.77 handle. AUD/USD has been in a bullish trend since since 24th March, drifting initially from 0.7480 and turning into an aggressive rally through broad based weakness in the greenback, but barrier op... [...]

Daily analysis of EUR/USD for March 30, 2016

OverviewThe EUR/USD pair trades steadily above the support base formed above the 1.1264 level, keeping the bullish trend scenario valid for the rest of the day. Current stochastic's negativity might lead to retesting of the mentioned level before the ... [...]