gbp

Murrey levels analysis – A strong pullback

EURUSD - Up

Four-hours chart of EUR USD. The pair broke the level (+2/8) and as a result we see that Murrey levels were redrafted. They were expanded. Currently the pair is below the level of (5/8). In this case we see an unsuccessful attempt of bulls to break through this level. The upward movement is losing momentum and from current position we expected a downward roll back. As usual, the first goal is the four-hours Supertrend line. If bulls want to continue to move to the top, they need to retain this local level of support. Otherwise we will see a stronger pullback to the area of ​​the main support and resistance level (4/8). This second option I regard as the basic for today

Trading solutions: Sales from 1.1348


You may check other analytical reviews on the web-site of FreshForex company. Source: freshforex.com.

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WSE: Before opening

The WIG20 futures contracts take off 2 points below yesterday's close. At today's market sentiment negatively affected by declines in the metals market and crude oil, which translates into a drop of contracts for major European markets. To positives in... [...]

‘Brexit’ will be a big Q2 theme – SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that ‘Brexit’ will be a big Q2 theme of course.

Key Quotes

“The quality of the debate is still dire but one much-cited threat to sterling is the combination of a large current account deficit and the uncertainty caused by the vote.

Q2 data are due today along with final GDP figures and March money supply data. We expect the deficit to have widened slightly to GBP 20.5bn, about 4.4% GDP. Not as bad as it was at the peak but more fodder for those who want to scare voters into voting to remain in the EU and as such, another negative for sterling.

We’ve been using GBP/NPK shorts as out preferred trade to be short the pound, and while this has quietened down a lot we’re happy to stick with it. Short sterling against a weighted basket of USD and EUR appeals, too.”

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that ‘Brexit’ will be a big Q2 theme of course.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

Where to for AUD and NZD? – Deutsche Bank

Robin Winkler, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that their short AUD and NZD have suffered from a sharp improvement in risk appetite thanks to benign signals from the Fed and China.

Key Quotes

“At least until the June FOMC meeting, the Fed’s accommodation of global risks may continue to bolster carry currencies. However, lifting our year-end forecasts by 8 cents to AUD/0.68 and NZD/0.63, the cycle lows, we retain our bearish bias in the medium term.

First, carry conditions are likely to deteriorate again. FOMC members have coalesced around two rate hikes this year. This outlook appears to factor in greater global risks than the market perceives at the moment and should therefore prove robust if market concerns over China were to resurface in the second half of the year. Conversely, if China were to remain stable, the Fed could quickly turn more hawkish again. For the Antipodes the risks therefore remain skewed toward short-term yield spreads against the US tightening again, even if the Reserve Banks refrain from cutting rates below 2%.

Second, the commodity slump is far from over. Our commodity strategists expect iron ore prices to fall back to $40 later this year, consistent with AUD/USD around 0.70 on a simple regression. They note that the credit-driven bump in Chinese steel production in the first quarter has only delayed necessary closures among mid-tier producers, and the market still requires prices to fall to the low $40s to squeeze out excess supply.

As for New Zealand’s dairy exports, futures indicate that milk powder prices may remain well below farmers’ average break-evens going into the 2016/17 season. The second-round impact on sectors that indirectly depend on dairy farming continues to pose downside risks to domestic inflation and employment.

Lastly, both Antipodes have become notably overvalued again on a PPP basis, and the AUD in particular also remains very expensive on our BEER and FEER models. In the medium term, this still matters.”

Robin Winkler, Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that their short AUD and NZD have suffered from a sharp improvement in risk appetite thanks to benign signals from the Fed and China.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

JPY: Q2 theme will be further unwinding of yen strength – SocGen

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that this morning’s weekly Japanese securities investment data reinforce his view that one Q2 theme will be some further unwinding of yen strength.

Key Quotes

“Last week saw the biggest net sales of Japanese equities and bonds by foreigners (Y2.2trn) since 2008 and over the last four weeks, we have seen the biggest net buying of foreign bonds by Japanese investors since at least 2000 (Y4.7trn).

If speculative yen longs are offsetting capital outflows and keeping USD/JPY in the current range, then I know which of these two forces is likely to win out in the end. My colleague Olivier Korber thinks the range can hold but I’d like to be short yen for as much of Q2 as possible.

The current chosen vehicle is SEK/JPY, which is a pretty ‘risk-on’ trade but also one that will benefit from any further uptick in inflation in Sweden.”

Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that this morning’s weekly Japanese securities investment data reinforce his view that one Q2 theme will be some further unwinding of yen strength.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

NZD/USD: At new cyclical high – ANZ

Research Team at ANZ, notes that the Kiwi broke to a new cycle high overnight as USD liquidation continued.

Key Quotes

“The break opens the way for a test above 0.70, with the next solid resistance around 0.7160-0.72. US data such as ADP employment remains solid, but the change in the Fed’s reaction function was further endorsed with the Chicago President Evans stating he doesn’t fear pushing inflation above target for a ‘brief period’. Month end demand is expected to keep the NZD strong today.

Expected range: 0.6880 – 0.7010”

Research Team at ANZ, notes that the Kiwi broke to a new cycle high overnight as USD liquidation continued.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

USD/CAD: Bears are defending 1.30 handle

CAD bulls are working hard amid wobbly oil prices to ensure the USD/CAD pair does not move beyond the psychological level of 1.30.

Focus on oil

Dovish comments from Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Patterson could be behind the weakness int the CAD today. The pair is likely to track the movement in the oil prices, which currently trade at least 0.50% lower on the day at both the sides of the Atlantic. Later in the day, US data releases and weekly jobless claims figure could influence the pair.

The spot dipped to a low of 1.2912 in the NY session yesterday amid broad based USD weakness and strength in oil prices.

USD/CAD Technical Levels

The immediate hurdle is noted at 1.30, above which the pair could test 1.3038 (Nov 3 low). Conversely, a break below 1.2948 (daily low) would expose 1.2912 (previous day’s low) – 1.29 handle.

CAD bulls are working hard amid wobbly oil prices to ensure the USD/CAD pair does not move beyond the psychological level of 1.30.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

Euro area inflation to remain in deflation territory – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the Euro area inflation figure for March is due today and we expect it to remain in deflation territory.

Key Quotes

“This should occur because the drag from energy price inflation is set to go up despite the higher oil price. This is caused by the oil price being at a higher level last year, hence taking the yearly inflation rate lower. Core inflation will also be in focus after it declined to 0.8% in February from 1.0% in January. We look for higher core inflation in March as the early timing of Easter will be supportive. That said, the ECB's updated core inflation forecast of 1.1% on average in 2016 still looks optimistic to us.

Today, Chicago Fed's Evans and New York Fed's Dudley are scheduled to speak.”

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the Euro area inflation figure for March is due today and we expect it to remain in deflation territory.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

USD/CHF recedes to 0.9640, USD recovery losing steam?

<!--TITOL:

USD/CHF recedes to 0.9640, USD recovery losing steam?

FITITOL--> The recovery in the USD/CHF faltered near 0.9660 region after the USD bears took over control, with the US dollar receding gains against its major peers.

USD/CHF revisits daily lows

Currently, the USD/CHF pair turns negative at 0.9647, testing daily lows reached at 0.9643 in early Asia. The major came under renewed selling pressure in the last hour largely on the back of stalling US dollar recovery from five-month lows versus its six major competitors. The USD index gains 0.13% to 94.92, versus 0.23% seen earlier today.

Meanwhile, the immediate focus now remains on Swiss retail sales due out shortly ahead of the US datasets due later in the NY session. Besides, SNB board member Maechler’s speech will be closely heard for fresh insights on the central banks’ take on the CHF level.

USD/CHF Technical Levels

To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9699/ 0.9700 (round number/ 5-DMA) and above which it could extend gains to 0.9721/33 (10-DMA/ daily R2). To the downside, immediate support might be located at 0.9600 (round number/ Daily S1) and below that 0.9550 (psychological levels).

The recovery in the USD/CHF faltered near 0.9660 region after the USD bears took over control, with the US dollar receding gains against its major peers.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet) [...]

Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Expecting drop to 111.54

USDJPY - Down

Daily chart: The pair continues to stay within horizontal range of 111.54-114.40. ADX is passive, so the basic expectation is an upward rebound from 111.54 for at least minimum 150 points along the extraday movement.

Н4: intermediate support at 112.20 (the bottom Bollinger band) may be weak because the ADX favors bears.

Н1: locally the area 112.16-112.20 looks crucial for the upward intraday correction. ADX is ambigious, so we shall be based on the downward pressure on the older frame.

Expectations: The main scenario - decline to 111.54 and upward bounce up

The alternative scenario is to find support at 112.20 and rebound to 112.54 and then a new attempt to drop

Trading solutions: sell from 112.54 to 111.54.


You may check other analytical reviews on the web-site of FreshForex company. Source: freshforex.com.

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